How KellyOdds Works

KellyOdds is a sports betting analytics model that provides near real-time odds for moneyline (ML) and point spread betting markets. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced sports bettor, KellyOdds helps you identify mispriced odds and capitalize on market inefficiencies. The model predicts true win probabilities for popular sports like the NFL and NBA, highlighting odds with positive expected value (+EV) across 20+ bookmakers in the US, EU, and UK.

Available Sports

  • NBA
  • NFL
  • NCAAB
  • NCAAF
  • MMA (UFC)
  • Soccer

We are continually expanding our offerings. For example, we plan to add MLB at the start of the 2025 season.

Data Provided by the Model

KellyOdds delivers insights in a clear, table-based format, featuring:

  • Win %: The predicted true win probability based on devigged odds from sharp bookmakers.
  • Fair Odds: Odds calculated from the predicted win probabilities. Betting on outcomes with these odds ensures break-even performance in the long run, assuming accurate predictions.
  • Best Odds: The highest odds available across 20+ tracked bookmakers. Best Odds exceeding the predicted Fair Odds may represent positive expected value.
  • EV (Expected Value): Indicates the potential profitability of a bet, calculated from the difference between predicted Fair Odds and available Best Odds. A higher EV margin increases confidence in the value of the odds by compensating for potential modeling errors.
  • Bet Size: A risk-adjusted bet size based on the predicted true win probability and edge, using the Kelly criterion.
  • Current Bookmaker Odds: Real-time odds from each bookmaker.

Example

Below is a screenshot of KellyOdds' data for NBA games played on January 12, 2025. Best Odds are highlighted in green, indicating positive expected value based on model assumptions.

KellyOdds Analytics Table Example

Disclaimer

We aim to update the provided odds data every 60 seconds. However, please note that the availability, accuracy, and update frequency of our data depend on external API providers and cannot be guaranteed. KellyOdds is a probabilistic model designed for educational and entertainment purposes. Its primary goal is to provide data that supports long-term decision-making over a sufficient sample size. However, KellyOdds does not offer betting advice or guarantee specific outcomes. For more details, please review our Terms & Conditions.